My 2009 (Mostly) Mobile Predictions


Apparently making wild predictions is the hip thing to do on New Years, so count me in.

  • We will receive confirmation that Netflix will provide their Watch Now service to Windows Mobile devices via Silverlight.
  • iPhone sales will slip in Q4 as Android devices and applications proliferate.
  • The MSM720X line of chips will become obsolete. Hell, in my opinion they already are. Basically any MSM720X based phone I have used slows to a crawl when accessing a network (including the Dream). These things are just slow (though the OpenGL acceleration is great). So as a result:
    • Intel and/or NVidia will become the new big players in the mobile chipset arena.
    • HTC, who is heavily invested in the MSM720X line of chips, will not be able to crank out incremental revisions of the same old phone in a new package (Touch, Polaris, Diamond, Raphael, Dream, HD, MAX, Viva, S7X0, etc, etc). They'll probably need to completely redesign their phone architecture. As a result, their domination of the Windows Mobile market will end.
    • Samsung, Sony, and Motorola will begin releasing touch phone products that are superior to the HTC brand.
  • Digital Cable subscriptions decline. Netflix subscriptions increase. Cable companies start lowering rates and come to terms with the fact that they are just ISPs.
  • Unlimited SMS becomes a staple in a mobile phone plan due to it's necessity in doing proper push email (push anything really).
  • Zune phone will be announced.
  • Consumers start buying Zunes. iPod sales slip in Q4.
  • Linux will continue not being a mainstream desktop OS. (Hey, I use it on a daily basis. It's still not mainstream.)
  • Microsoft spends an insane amount of money buying something mobile related in an attempt to fix their Windows Mobile situation.
  • Sprint goes belly up.


Craig said...

No predictions about WM6.5 or WM7?

I find it hard to imagine any company manufacturing superior phones to HTC. I can see them designing better phones, like the way Ericsson had HTC manufacture the Xperia for them.

Koush said...

I don't think even Microsoft can predict when 6.5 and 7 will release. :)

Alexey Volovoy said...

I think Sprint will survive, at least in some form. all people i know from Sprint somewhat optimistic. Sprint does have pretty cool services compare to other carriers and i want to see how those will be played with coming Android devices.